IT’S NEVER LATE TO GET BACK ON THE RIGHT TRACK
We Predicted SENSEX 9000 during our New Year Deepawali
Now prepare for a new journey towards 10000 and 11000 in next year
SpecialCalls started its operation on January 5, 2005 the beginning of the magical year 2005, which had given newer heights to the SENSEX and ultimately Marc Faber had to
accept the fact that INDIA has turned into an asset class.
While others were witnessing the growth we were predicting and actively participating in this journey, we were even labeled over ambitious and many predicted that very soon we will be proved wrong and be out of the business.
However nothing such happened and finally we proved right in all our predictions. Did we gambled and took an ultimate risk by predicting 9000? (Many of you may remember we had invited you to celebrate a memorable Deepawali with us? However few decided to trust us and many simply ignored their fate and an opportunity reached at their door.
No, we never advised gambling (Intraday) we were the first to educate our members to accept that stock market is similar to other business with a higher risk & highest reward too.
Every body right from the one man team analyst to dozens of technical experts claims new theory in newspaper, magazines and TV Channels when market is in Bullish mode. But when you ask the same analyst during a market free fall they will answer you in a very diplomatic way and remains highly cautious. Whenever they are asked to tell the bottom and when to start the buying they do their very best to evade the question and answer you the old and boring reply, “Never try to hold a falling knife and other decades old logics.
Reason is why? They are afraid of putting their honest opinion (if they have their own?) 90% of analyst working on various research houses feed themselves from other’s intelligence, to our utter surprise they are active members of various yahoo groups and message boards. Just imagine the level of their intelligence? And the best among the above is the selection of UTI as a Financial Adviser to Al Madina Finance Company (A Kuwaiti based company)
Am sure most of our readers are aware of UTI’s US-64 scam in 2001
Investor faith in mutual fund has always been with the rise & fall of the stock market. Still we never understand why people are shying away from directly investing in equity market and going the mutual fund way. In case of market fall, mutual fund will not pay their investors from their pocket. Mutual fund too gives the same disclaimer alike any financial advisor then why not remain with the later than trusting the former as direct equity investment provides you a higher % of returns compared to mutual funds. However will cover this topic separately in details in near future.
What keeps us ahead of the herds? Why we are predicting Indian stock market so precisely with a success rate which had compelled many analysts appearing on TV channels and writers of big books on stock market becoming our members with anonymous names (email ids) and that too after paying our fees which is 25k for a quarter.
Ok will address both the topics one by one, first what keeps our prediction so close to perfection? Ethically we will not
point others weakness and speak only on our strengths.
SENSEX & Stocks Prediction:
· Open Mind: we emphasis more on it without any ifs and buts.
· We are not afraid of making mistakes.
· We are also not afraid
of failing.
Because if we are afraid of making mistakes and live with a fear of failing we will never be able to learn. It’s easier said then done that learn from others mistake but in real life you learn more form your own mistakes because every individual has his own set of risk taking capacity and accordingly he calculates his risk.
In real world the people who are most successful are those who
made more mistakes and learned from their every mistake. Making mistake is how we are designed to learn, however we agree it’s a sin to make a mistake and not learn from it. The reason so many people avoid taking a risk and making a mistake is because they are emotionally terrified of admitting they also can make a mistake and as a result they waste an opportunity to learn.
Making mistakes and admitting it without blaming it on others, or justifying or making excuses is how we learn.
We remember we miserably failed in RANBAXY Futures call during recent 1000 points fall and few of our newly joined members (Mr. Bagri (Saudi Arabia), Mr. Yuvraj (USA) & Mr. Santosh (Bangalore) were annoyed on our Team of analyst even though we humbly admitted the mistake. However it gave our Team a unique opportunity
to prove our supremacy and we bounced back with a series of profits in almost every frontline stock we buyed in futures @ 8785 levels and booked profits in approx 3 weeks (exactly 18 days) we proved our command on the stock market.
You all will agree we deliberately stay away from making noise every day on our calls and success because we have come to know it’s useless in comparison to word of mouth. We had grown from 25 to 160 paid members in last 11+ months which itself is a token of our acceptance among our credibility in this business. We have got repeat membership of those people who initially were afraid trusting us because we were working silently without and whereabouts. Our answer
to such people who still are more interested in knowing our antecedents rather than benefiting themselves from our expertise is, very soon we are going to remove the mask out of our faces and come publicly however before that we have earmarked a target of at least 200 yearly members to profitably run this service. One more thing we like to update the readers that once we appear publicly through our office and website (which is under construction) our charges will be quite higher than prevailing subscription plans, however there will be old subscription rates for repeat members because they not only trusted us, but with their faith and confidence inspired us financially and emotionally to deliver the best services and success rate in this business and bringing it within the reach of common investors which were so far happened to be the pie of HNI, Banks, FIIs, M Funds.
Coming to the second point. What keeps us ahead of herds?
There were days initially in the first few months of starting this group when we were almost close to the decision of pack up this services simply because our analyst were failing to cross the success rate of 60% which was used to be a good one among others, but as we wanted to sell a product special and with 60% success rate why anyone will pay us 20K quarterly when the same was available at 5000 yearly to 6000 quarterly?
We had a series of meeting and brainstorming with our technical and fundamental analyst and we were able to diagnose the root cause. Here we are giving few important clues to so called big research houses which may help them manage their overseas clients with a corpus of Rs.3000 crore + Funds. All these are from our real experience and are not teaches in lectures of Finance in any world’s class Institutes.
· Make it compulsory to induction program and let the new entrant learn the organisation and its objectives not only from the manual but also from the real people and their real life experience.
·
Make a short job rotation between technical and fundamental analyst to grasp the basics of each others functions.
· Scrap the old age performance rating of your Team Analysts from the % of success he achieved by writing a buy or a sell call instead back his decision on the basis of facts and
logical reasons on which he initiates a recommendations.
· Failure of an Individual is not an indication of his competence but encourage him to identify the reasons and circumstances responsible for and find out the preventive measures to arrest the similar risk in coming future.
· Convey regularly to your Team of analyst that you are comfortable when you fail more than most people who avoid making mistakes simply because they have been taught , making mistake is bad and people may think they are stupid.
· Make them understand that you are looking to make them more mistakes in future because you don’t want your analysts to be among those people who are working hard to make no more mistakes in their future.
This is why we predict futures so
precisely because we know we can’t improve our future if we are not willing to try something new and taking risk and making mistakes and learning from them.
Finally why SENSEX up move is sure
We had always advocated since SENSEX was at 4500 that 12000 Index is not a distance dream and in next 2-3 years it is possible. Readers who have been reading to our messages in the name of
Moderators alliance are witness to our claim. We Indians must invest in Equity market with faith and trust and not depend completely on Foreign money in support of our claim we request our readers to follow the below given link and appreciate the good work initiated by us.
Visit the following link in support of the above statement.
During the last two months FIIs have pumped only Rs.3250 crore as against Rs 6150 crore pumped in by local mutual funds. The local funds are coming into their own and the market is no longer FII driven anymore. India seems to be joining the select
Band of the mature markets which are mutual fund driven.
The retail investors are almost back and more and more are joining this bandwagon if the figures of new demat accounts are to be believed. The fear psychosis of money lost in UTI during yesteryears is behind them and are more than willing to put both trust and
Money in local mutual funds.
It is observed that avenues of parking the savings profitably have also shrunk further. Corporate fixed deposits
are almost extinct and whatever little is available is without lustre. Bank fixed deposits and small savings too reward meagerly and do not beat inflationary pressures. RBI bonds with a pre tax 8% return is hardly attractive. This leaves only one option of equity investments either directly through secondary markets
Or through mutual fund route which can give handsome returns.
Growth rate for the first half of the current fiscal has been the best ever for H1.It signals A mark up by 15% to 20% of the estimated 7% growth for this fiscal.
Economists working with the FIIs and giving micro focus test to Indian macro and micro growth patterns feel that India has begun to perform better than China and shall improve upon that in coming three years. No wonder the long term committed funds are
Flowing from Far East and the west.
Some fears of the rally losing its momentum and slowing down are being nursed and are not unfounded either. The rise in FED rates may not affect the Indian bourses as the play is now skewed to local money rather than FII funds. However political pressures leading to slowdown in reform process, weakening of Rupee, rising crude prices, trade deficit figures may warrant some caution but if tackled carefully shall turn out to be challenges to move ahead. On the foreign currency front the Government is already
Working on raising revenues by sales of invisible services, tourism etc.
Visit the following link in support of the above statement.
Apart from all the above the biggest question in your mind may be why I am reading all these, hold we won’t disappoint you, once again we will try to help you make your mind towards getting worked in the right direction. Is this not the Question you always wanted to know?
Why every time I miss the Rally? Or I enter too late.
Reasons are simple but we know readers may not be able to digest it so easily as their ego will come once again between accepting the fact that it’s difficult to match the skills of professionals in this field who are updated every moment compared to the old age strategies of common investors.
Few observations we received from our client’s email are reproduced below. Isn’t the below mentioned situation familiar to you?
1. I will wait for a correction to enter the market or in a particular stock
again.
2. Will wait till correction is over and market is bottomed up.
3. The stock is already appreciated and am waiting for a correction
to re-enter.
4. The moment I sold the stock it moved up.
5. During corrections you sell your stocks either in hurry or panic with a thought
to buy it later at a discounted price.
6. You start averaging the stocks which had fallen substantially by 10-20%
7. Moment market falls
you start looking for advice from every possible source.
8. When market is in Bull mode you keep booking profits in your stocks already appreciated and re-entering again in the same stock.
9.
You feel proud to have saved few thousands of an analyst’s fees and believe trading and investing is an easy job and need not any involvement of a professional advisor?
10. You love to save few thousands and hate to loose lacs of your capital during sudden market crash.
Ask the following questions to yourself and listen to your heart, it will speak the truth.
1. Is it possible that market or a particular stock will correct from its current price and reverse back to oblige you and pause for a moment so you make an entry before market start his journey touching new highs and begin a fresh
bull run?
2. How will you know that correction is going to over at certain level and market has bottomed up? From the remarks of the analysts? Who keeps on giving new supports every time the previous support levels are broken?
3. Is it you who decides that a stock is appreciated? Or any analyst who control the appreciation of any particular stock or Index? Appreciation works on demand and supply gap and stock may keep on gaining with regular appreciation and may not correct to the level we expect.
4. The moment I sold, the stock went up, this is another myth and a pure coincidence, it may happen to certain operator driven stocks.
5. Can you
guarantee that the stocks which you had sold off in panic or in a hope to buy it later at a cheaper price will correct in line with relative index strength? Or again the same question when you will know the stock has bottomed out?
6. Instead of averaging, is not it a better option to enter in those stocks which had not fallen more than 3-5% compared to stocks in your portfolio which has depreciated by 10-20%?
7. Again the herd mentality is on work, during a market crash every one is gripped in panic and how can some one advice you unbiased? Why not stay calm and access the gravity with a cool head? With your own wisdom?
8. Why not diversify? Why not select another stock with the similar fundamentals and sector which had either not participated in the rally or if participated it had not appreciated in line with his peers?
9. If it was so easy then why you all keep on joining so many message boards and read every magazine and newspapers to keep your self update. The moderators of yahoo groups who breeds herd mentality in the name of free services and freedom and feed their members with hundreds of stocks and equal number of views and opinions everyday must have mastered and even did their PHD and they would have chairing the top slot of any large financial institutions as a Chief Financial advisor or started their own Financial advisory services?
10. Yes you proudly saved few thousands but in the process you continuously risk your capital. Many of you pay hefty premium towards your Life Insurance Policy to control risk in case of any adversity but the height of hypocrisy is you don’t apply the same rule here and patiently watch your portfolio shrinking and slowly moving towards complete bankruptcy.
Why we are
advocating a professional approach in Trading and Investment.
Simply because we feel equally hurt when we observe thousands of people burning their money in a state of ignorance.
As we stated earlier our client’s list includes many famous analysts who regularly appears on TV Channels and write big articles in newspapers and share their opinions with their viewers and readers. But when it comes
to their own money they seek advises from others not because they are not competent themselves, but for the simple fact they want to keep their investment and trade away from their emotional bonding.
An investor is always tempted and fall in love with the stocks he nurtured over a period of time and the attachment is so strong that he never likes to sell it even if there is a confirm negative news in that particular stock because he live with a hope that the impact will be short lived and soon the stock will get appreciated to it’s original values.
Similar is the case with a Trader, irrespective of confirm negative news he keeps on updating his stop loss with a hope that when the impact is neutralized the stock will appreciate and recover all his losses in that particular trade.
The Question arises that when a Certified Financial Advisor also takes a professional Advises for himself, what’s wrong with the people who are amateur and even don’t understand the difference between trading and investment? Relying purely on speculations will lead to a confirmed disaster.
Why to seek a professional company or an individual advisor when everything is available free?
Prima facie the answer looks easy? But it is complex and serious.
Market wise & Stock wise:
· They are responsible to keep track on available information and happenings in Wall Street and provide prior information on market correction and rise.
· They helps you control your emotions (greed and fear) during Bull and Bear phase respectively.
· They advice you to take position in INDEX or stocks well in advance before it’s known to public through electronic and print media.
· Their speculations are based on hard facts, news and activities because of their proximity with the sources that are responsible for affecting the broad based decisions.
· Their views and opinions are logical and derived from the immediate circumstances which decides the next direction of the INDEX and movement in the stocks.
· Their advices are un biased and free from prejudice as they themselves can’t
own all the SENSEX and NIFTY stocks similar to Fund managers or Financial Advisors working for a mutual fund or FIIs who has vested interest lying in their recommendations as they flood the market with their so called TIPS and inside information through their agents either working as a self claimed analyst or through various magazines, newspapers and yahoo groups.
SPECIALCALLS charges are too high and unaffordable.
Yes we have several reasons to justify our charges.
· We are Independent team of technical and fundamental analysts.
· We don’t work for any FIIs, Mutual Funds or promote their recommendations hence in the process we don’t receive any hefty pay cheque and grants.
· We are self financed group and meet our expenses through our own resources and don’t accept any financial or other assistance in the process.
· We don’t offer our services to brokers and operators and reject outright. The latest was from a website who claims to know every trick of the trades offered us an exclusive right to provide information for a period of 12 months to them and the amount offered to us was equal to our yearly turnover so far.
· Since
inception we were determined to serve individuals with a high income bracket who could risk their extra money in stock market and also can afford loosing it in the process of rewards and by charging 25K per quarter in fact we discouraged small investor to participate in trading business in the stock market and indirectly helped them to remain investor.
· Our charges itself is an acknowledgement that we are interested in genuine and first hand information to serious
peoples and discourage street smart analyst who subscribe to few websites or work for research houses as their agents and compile various information together and post in their own name.
Yes these people can provide you their expertise on as low as 500 - 1000 per month to 5000 quarterly because their prime objective is to engage as many clients in buying their recommendations to create an artificial volumes and book profits before you for eg; If they recommend you to buy VSNL @ 370 with a target of 400 they will book their position at 375 to 380 and leave you ride on your luck. I dare them to recommend a call without giving any targets and am sure they won’t agree it because
their objective is to engage you in greed and want you to eye the target of 400 while they silently exit @ 375-380
These agents mostly prefer yahoo or msn messenger over SMS to promote and reach their clients due to ease and convenient to reach maximum people in shortest period of time (seconds) while the same is not possible in SMS however few have started using SMS through website instead of messengers.
These street smart agents are so shrewd they keep on changing their identification recently we came across few recommendation which was sent to our anonymous yahoo id about certain calls which prompted us to do some detective job.
Being in the same profession we regularly exchange information with our counterparts and few days back one of our SMS Team member (Manoj) met our senior analyst in his cabin in the evening and revealed something interesting am reproducing the incident by holding the actual names to save embracement to the so called agent as we believe in minding our own business.
He was being added by an anonymous person Azaz Motiwala and after approval he obliged him various TIPS on friendly gesture and advised to buy for a sure shot gain and pay him later his charges @ 1000 per month after he is satisfied from the calls and to his surprise most of his calls were the same which were recommended by a reputed research house who have their own yahoo group and from their they offer monthly services to their paid clients. Manoj finalized an yearly deal @ 8000 and negotiated a discount of Rs. 4000 and also applied a condition that he will come and pay him in person near a restaurant at Bandra and in the process he win his confidence and met him again at his residence in kandivlai (a
western suburb in Mumbai)
The chilling part of this incident is that the so called Azaz Motiwala real name is Hitesh and he is a kutchy (belongs to Kutch in Gujarat state) A Hindu and not a Muslim as his name suggested in his yahoo id. His modus operandi is to buy calls from a group @ 5000 monthly and sell it to minimum 5 peoples to serve dual purpose. First to recover subscription amount by charging 1000 x 5
= 5000 from his members, secondly by sending his calls through SMS he is successfully involving more and more people to act on his recommendation and create an artificial demand resulting to increase in the Intra day price.
From the above his objectives are clear by keeping an anonymous name he is trying to save himself from embarrassments in case if his calls fails and also not to be traced back to find his antecedents because any one trying to find him will limit himself to trace by his name AZAZ MOTIWALA, in case his
calls fails he will select another name Rahim Chacha and the story continues with claims.
Our Reliance Capital call ZOOMS. We made 8500 profit in just single stock, what about you’re other calls which failed and nose dived in Atlantic Ocean? Ask these Zoomers to write a 1 page article on any subject on stocks or derivatives am 100% sure they will not go beyond few lines and say the words which they have heard often repeated on a
particular business channel or read in weekly penny newspapers. These elements are just drop outs of schools with no objectives and goals in their life and simply mess with their own and others futures who rely on them.
· The above is one of the reasons why we don’t offer monthly services and the charges too we had kept in the premium category to eliminate
these street smart elements away from our services.
· We are ready to serve @ 1000 per month to small members provided.
o You enroll for a complete period of 12 months.
o You make one time
payment of entire yearly subscription amount of 12000
o We will start the service immediately after receipt of minimum enrollments to run this business module separately
· Latest in the foray are money out of control J who are offering their services within 200 Rupees as their formula for success is different as they believe in volume and herd mentality.
How can anyone be benefited by buying same stocks and making profits on it which thousands of them buyed from a similar source of advisor? Any one with a mind in his head can read the fine print which we like to warn our readers. Isn’t it a plan to trap thousands of investors to buy stocks recommended by the so called analysts appearing on their channels?
The saddest part is the participation of Mr. Gujral among various others in the advisory panel. We had held a very high regard for him because of his frank and exclusive opinions on the stock market and his views would have largely remained logical from his counterparts. But now we seriously doubt on his credibility and views as he proved from his action that his words and actions both are two different sides of the coin. While he preaches to abstain from herd mentality in his book, in real life he is practicing the same by joining hands with peoples who promote what he himself criticizes in his book. Why these two different opinions? Any answer?
· We don’t accept monthly members and offers only quarterly services because from our past experiences we noticed that it is premature to understand our style of trading and investing in a mere 20 trading days and as we are determined to stay longer and want to build a potent database of clients who remains with us just not because they don’t have a better alternate but to remain loyal on our merits, our performance and services which we keep on evaluating periodically and takes regular feedback from our members to help us
provide what our clients needs and not what we sell to them.
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