A paper in Nature (March 17) warns of an increased risk of a
tsunami-spawning earthquake within the next one to five years, located just
south of the epicenter of the December 26th earthquake. This paper is based
on calculations of stress in the region. The magnitude is predicted to be
between 7 and 7.5 .
This earthquake would be much weaker than the last one (mag 9) but the
tsunami would nevertheless threaten Sumatra and the Nicobars. There isn't
time enough to wait for a full-fledged tsunami warning system, with sensors
and all. (Such a warning system wouldn't be of much help on the Nicobars
anyway, because the wave would arrive there much sooner than on mainland
India.) What is needed immediately is a network by which the Indian met
office informs people on the different islands of the Andamans and Nicobars
if an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or more is detected in the region. This is
going to be difficult given that even a phone connection to central Nicobar
is very unreliable, but it needs to be done. And the public needs to get the
news, not just the local officials... too many of them on the Nicobars
vanished when they were needed, or worse.
Madhusree