As one of those who have, arguably, hyped the bird flu threat, this might
look like I'm trying to defend myself. Frankly, I don't care how it looks,
but I feel that I have to protest a bunch of loosely connected facts being
strung together into a bizarre conspiracy theory. One only needs to look at
the quick spread of some newly minted and highly dangerous viruses--such as
HIV and SARS--to see that the danger from emerging viruses is real.

America didn't create the bird flu scare, because it was one of the last
countries to react to it. By the time the US got around to trying to place
orders for Tamiflu, it found that it would have to wait for years because
other countries had gotten in ahead. Europe reacted earliest because it is
more aware of what goes on in Asia, because it is physically connected to
Asia (so that an epidemic would arrive there sooner), and because it is
wealthy enough.

In fact the US dilemma is advantageous to India. If the US breaks the
Tamiflu patent held by the Swiss company Roche, or forces Roche to issue
production licenses to other companies, that sets a precedent allowing India
and other poor countries to do the same in case of life-threatening
diseases.

Apparently the genetic code of the current bird flu virus needs about eight
mutations to change into a form in which it can be transmitted between
humans. Since no one knows the rate at which mutations occur in this virus,
this means that the time span in which this change might happen is unknown.
It could be years. On the other hand, the virus could acquire the genetic
material it needs (for transmission between humans) from an ordinary flu
virus, which already has this capacity. This could happen when someone comes
down with bird flu and ordinary flu simultaneously. That is why it is
imperative to keep the number of human victims of bird flu down, so that the
virus doesn't get a chance to change into a deadlier form.

Currently the bird flu virus has killed thousands of migratory birds, and
many more chickens, but has proved not very infectious to humans. This could
be because those in SE Asia who routinely handle poultry have developed some
immunity to the disease. That is, the virus could be more deadly to people
who have never been exposed to it. Caution, awareness, close monitoring of
migratory birds and poultry, and rapid response to any outbreaks is
necessary. To suggest otherwise is irresponsible.

I wish we knew how to mitigate the dangers to the migratory birds
themselves.
Madhusree




> 1. The Flaw in the Flu
> From: "Pankaj" <pankaj@...>

: The Flaw in the Flu
>
> The Flaw in the Flu
> http://www.sanctuaryasia.com/sanctmagazine/archivedetail.php?id=760
> by Maan Barua
>
>
>
>
> It is a pleasant November afternoon, and I am in Nameri Tiger Reserve,
> watching a flock of Amur Falcons 'milling' over sandbanks along the
> Bharelli
> river. Their movements seem like a set of changing alphabets against the
> clear blue Assam sky. The birds, we presume, are migrating from China
> through India to their wintering grounds in South Africa, and every year
> they continue to do so in flocks of thousands. But unlike the usual manner
> in which the arrival of these migrant birds are 'heralded' by the media,
> this year they are being seen as vicious 'outsiders' carrying with them
> the
> phantom of death.
>
> In the past month or so, the world has suddenly been whipped into a
> fear-frenzy over the 'bird flu' epidemic that could take on gargantuan
> proportions, and it has become almost mandatory to compare it to the 1918
> pandemic that is said to have killed 18 million people worldwide. This
> fear
> has spread from ostrich farmers in South Africa to observers of wildfowl
> in
> British Columbia, and in India, major centres for migrant birds such as
> Kaziranga and Bharatpur, that were once seen as great oases for birdlife,
> have overnight become 'red alert zones' where people "may contract the
> virus
> from the visiting birds!"
>
> But then how serious is this not-yet-occurred epidemic that we apparently
> need to be waging a war against? The most noticeable large-scale
> announcement on combating the 'war on flu' came from none other than
> George
> W. Bush, the President of the United States: "At this moment, there is no
> pandemic influenza in the United States or the world. But if history is
> our
> guide, there is reason to be concerned. In the last century, our country
> and
> the world have been hit by three influenza. The first, which struck in
> 1918,
> killed over half-a-million Americans and more than 20 million people
> across
> the globe..." Likewise, the British Government has publicly announced that
> more than 50,000 people are likely to die in Britain, but has 'privately'
> told the media (!) that it is preparing for up to 750,000 deaths.
> Irresponsible statements from health-care professionals have further
> fuelled
> the crisis, and 'experts' from the U.K. are saying that the British death
> toll could even reach two million!
>
> The current media-churning of 'breaking news' continues unabated, while
> vital voices that do not fuel the fear are ignored. In the October 29th
> editorial of the British Medical Journal, a senior scientist wrote, "avian
> influenza viruses do not usually infect humans, and hence there was grave
> concern when 18 human cases of influenza caused by bird-to-human
> transmission of AH5N1 avian influenza occurred in Hong Kong in May 1997
> with
> six deaths. Given the large number of infected chickens then in the Hong
> Kong markets, bird-to-human clinical infection was clearly rare. Public
> concern waned when culling of more than 1.5 million chickens halted the
> epidemic." It is hard to believe that science is being abandoned, for how
> do
> they make the giant leap of faith that 60 deaths will translate to two
> million? But then not that hard when we realise that such statements
> succeed
> in converting society into a huge market of fear-filled, anti-bird flu
> drug
> consumers!
>
> It may be interesting for readers to know President Bush went on to stress
> that "at this point, we do not have evidence that a pandemic is
> imminent...
> Even if the virus does eventually appear on our shores in birds, that does
> not mean people in our country will be infected. Avian flu is still
> primarily an animal disease. And as of now, unless people come into
> direct,
> sustained contact with infected birds, it is unlikely they will come down
> with avian flu." But then what made the President call on the Congress to
> immediately pass a new US $ 7.1 billion in emergency funding to prepare
> for
> that not-so-imminent danger? That is when things start becoming
> suspicious.
> On October 28, 2005 the Senate passed an eight billion dollars emergency
> funding bill to address the growing avian flu panic. The World Bank has
> already proposed one billion dollars for the war against bird flu (of
> course, it spends much more than that to destroy the world's wetlands upon
> which migratory fowl are largely dependant).
>
> The only medicine, we are told, which reduces the symptoms of avian flu,
> is
> a branded drug called Tamiflu that features prominently among President
> Bush
> 's list of emergency measures. A purchase of 20 million doses of Tamiflu
> has
> already been made and the U.S. Congress is to appropriate another one
> billion dollars for this drug. What good news for the Swiss pharmaceutical
> giant Roche, which holds the sole license to manufacture Tamiflu. The drug
> was actually developed and patented in 1996 by a California-based biotech
> firm, Gilead Sciences Inc. It prefers to maintain a low profile in the
> current rush to Tamiflu, but this might be because of who is tied to
> Gilead.
> In 1997, before he became Pentagon chief, Donald Rumsfeld was named
> Chairman
> (research) of the Board of Gilead Sciences, where he remained until early
> 2001 when he became Defense Secretary. According to Fortune (October 31)
> Rumsfeld holds a Gilead stake valued at between five and 25 million
> dollars
> and the global rush to buy Tamiflu has amounted to a windfall of at least
> one million dollars for Rumsfeld. The Gilead board also includes Bechtel
> Corp. Director George Schultz. "I don't know of any biotech company that's
> so politically well-connected," says analyst Andrew McDonald of Think
> Equity
> Partners in San Francisco.
>
> Gilead now wants to regain control of the drug from Roche and accuses it
> of
> "not doing an adequate job in manufacturing and marketing," while the
> latter
> denies this, saying "Tamiflu is hard to make and it would take another
> company three years to 'get up to speed' in producing the drug." But what
> it
> is actually saying is that it does not want to share its profits with
> anyone
> else. Cipla, the Indian pharmaceutical firm, says it can start producing
> this drug by January and India, on its part, is taking initiatives that
> aim
> at the production of cheaper alternatives to Tamiflu. The World Bank,
> always
> an advocate on 'policies' for developing countries, has decided not to be
> part of the mission that is talking about licenses for the patent. Is this
> silence merely incidental?
>
> Another danger that is emerging is that the current 'war on flu', as it is
> being portrayed, is dissolving all borders between the military and social
> institutions. The Bush administration claims to be referring to this as a
> 'catastrophe' in which the "Pentagon would be the only agency with enough
> strength to respond." Behind all this lurks the fact that officials are
> rewriting the plan to designate "not just who cares for the sick but who
> will keep the country running amid the chaos," said an influenza
> specialist
> who is advising the British government on those decisions.
>
> Amongst the measures being taken in developing countries that could be
> potentially affected by bird flu is the culling of chickens. Close
> domestic
> proximity of fowl, pigs and people facilitates the transmission of the
> virus
> from animal or bird to man, a situation common in rural Asia. Recently,
> Margaret Say, Southeast Asian director for the U.S.A. Poultry and Egg
> Export
> Council, told Reuters that while some governments were working hard to
> fight
> the virus, others were "becoming a bit slack. We cannot control migratory
> birds but we can surely work hard to close down as many backyard farms as
> possible." Why is the U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Council so keen on
> closing
> down farms? It may interest readers to know that Laurence Tiley of
> Cambridge
> University and Helen Sang of the Roslin Institute in Scotland are involved
> in developing 'transgenic chickens' that would involve genetic material
> inserted into eggs to allegedly make the chickens H5N1-resistant. This
> would
> mean opening up of new markets for GMOs. The dangers of genetic monopoly
> of
> food-products are known to everyone, and it will be the poor rural farmers
> and the developing Asian countries that will lose out. As far as the flu
> goes, we're still waiting for Godot.
>
>
> What Flu Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
> Avian influenza is a contagious disease affecting birds caused by type A
> strains of the influenza virus. Although 15 sub-types of the virus are
> known, the pathogenic outbreaks to date have been caused by sub-types H5
> and
> H7. Avian influenza could manifest itself as a mild illness or a fatal and
> contagious epidemic. Migratory waterfowl are the most common carriers of
> the
> flu, while domestic poultry are the most susceptible to it.
>
> It is difficult to develop vaccines against it because the virus is
> constantly 'shifting' and 'drifting' and a mild strain can mutate into a
> fatal one. 'Drifting' is when the imperfect replication of the virus
> alters
> its antigenic composition. 'Shifting' is when two differing sub-types
> exchange or rearrange genes and merge to become a completely different
> virus. If one of these has genes from a human strain of the influenza
> virus,
> the infection could rapidly affect humans as well. Shifting requires a
> 'mixing vessel' where both human and avian strains are present and can be
> reassembled. Pigs were considered to be the 'vessels' but recent research
> has shown that for some strains, humans themselves might be the 'mixing
> vessels'. This is what triggered fears of an influenza pandemic. The
> sub-type H5N1 is of particular concern because it mutates rapidly and has
> a
> tendency to pick up genes from animal influenza strains.
>
>
>
>
> C/o Kalpavriksh
> Apt. 5, Sri Dutta Krupa
> 908 Deccan Gymkhana
> Pune - 411004
> Tel: 020 - 25654239/25675450. Fax; 25654239
> Email: pankajs@...; pankaj@...
>
>
>