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Dinesh Mishra




  Strange Arithmetic of Bihar Politics
by Dinesh Kumar Mishra

The wrangling about 243-seat hung  Vidhan Sabha in Bihar amidst President’s Rule in the state goes on unabated. The  Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Rashtriya Janata Dal ( RJD) and Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) are spoiling the broth while a minor – but not insignificant role – is played by parties like the Socialist Party ( SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP) . The mutual distrust grows but the he magic number 122 for a government is a mirage.

The  President’s Rule  is from the beginning frail in structure as the  Governor Buta Singh has not been able to name the advisors, thanks to the cold war between the supremos of RJD and LJP – Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Bilas Paswan. However ministers and MLAs, defeated in the elections were asked to vacate the official residences. Law and order shows signs of visibility after years together and the street rowdyism is on the decline. ‘Rangdari’ (extortion) business that flourished over the past decade, has already taken a backseat. The public, by and large, in that sense is relieved. Some people feel that the state needs a KPS Gill.

But a more tensed-up situation is looming large when the politicians fail to solve the brain teaser. There are reports from the southern districts of the state of falling water tables, alarming drinking water problem and scarcity-induced migration are coming in. Situation is particularly bad in Gaya, Jehanabad and Bhojpur districts. Floods await the northern part of the state as the repair works on the embankments and canals is yet to o pick up momentum. It is yet to start at many places. No politician, apparently, is bothered about the plight of the people although the Supreme Court heard and thankfully rejected the plea demanding salaries and perks for the elected members of the assembly.


Paswan, for instance, has said nothing about the watery worries that affect the lower castes whose cause whom he and his party LJP claim to champion. He is rather seething in anger against Lalu Yadav as he could never reconcile his position after being refused the post of railway minister in the UPA ministry and settling for a less creamy iron and mines ministry. He planned to avenge the humiliation by weaning away Lalu’s Muslim vote bank RJD and succeeded partly. With 29 elected members, he appeared to hold the key and wanted a Government to be formed that would exclude the BJP (37), and RJD (75). Since Congress has 10 elected members and aligned with RJD instead of LJP as for the UPA, RJD is numerically more important than LJP.

A flawed calculus, made Paswan more desperate against the RJD. His insistence on a Muslim chief minister is a pose as most of the  LJP MLAs are caste Hindus and none among his 29 members is a Muslim. Political observers in general doubt whether he can borrow a CM from another party.

If Jharkhand is treated as a precursor of events, every 17th independent member of Bihar is a political party and equal number of ministerial seats would be filled by them irrespective of who forms the government. The CPI (ML) with seven MLAs, followed by three of CPI and CPI(M)  remain aloof from Paswan’s political game. They expressed a strong apathy against the Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar’s move to form anti-RJD and anti-Congress government. The CPI(ML) is generally against a government, led by Lalu although  figures do not favour the RJD big boss as with his 75 member-strength, his failure is obvious. With ten Congress, 11 communist, three NCP and even 17 Independent MLAs, the RJD can’t reach the magic figure. Moreover, most of the 17 Independent MLAs are anti-Lalu.

In the meanwhile, the centre has allocated a sum of Rs. 356 Crores to raise, strengthen and extend the embankments of the Bagmati and the Kamla. Pity is that it is just an extension of the "outdated embanking technology" of 1947 as environmental imperatives are absent in it. The problem in the state is identified with one of ineffective drainage. Extension of embankment length, width or height impedes the flow. The other culprits are the roads and rails with drainage inadequacy .The canals running into tens of thousands of kilometers have the same congestive disorder. But none talks about the impending manmade disaster at the moment that the people of Bihar are destined to face in coming months.

Will somebody tell the flood victims of Bihar about the fate of the report of the task force, appointed last year after the visit of Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, including follow-ups if at all?  Will somebody come and ensure the people of Kusheswar Asthan, Chandauli, Khagaria, Darbhanga, Danapur, Jhanjharpur, Runnisaipur, and Kataunjha that enough foodgrains are stored at respective places instead of last year’s myopic experiment of transporting the same from Patna this time? The essence of National Common Minimum Programme demands that Lalu, Paswan and of course, Sonia Gandhi gear up to take on the crucial issue: the highly probable disaster that may visit hundreds of thousands of people, frequently hit by catastrophe.

Dinesh Kumar Mishra

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