This monsoon has spoiled the crop party
ASHOK B SHARMA
Financial Express, Sept.2, 2006



NEW DELHI, SEPT 1: A marked shift in the monsoon rainfall pattern
this year has affected cultivation in major crop-producing states.
While the flood-prone areas of north-eastern India and Bihar are dry,
drought-prone states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan are
witnessing a deluge.

As a result, Assam may end up producing less rice this year, the
central Indian soybean crop could turn robust, and groundnut and
sesamum crops in Gujarat and Rajasthan could take a hit.

The shift in pattern was first noticed last year. But official
meteorologists are yet to establish a direct link between the new
rainfall pattern and the global climate change.

The area under paddy cultivation in Assam has shrunk by about 7% and
the state is affected by drought. But, according to the agriculture
ministry, "this is no major cause for major concerns. The total area
under paddy cultivation in the country has increased by about 1.615
million hectares". The crop-weather watch group of the ministry has
noted a countrywide decline in area under oilseed cultivation by about
one million hectares. The area under coarse cereals has shrunk in
states witnessing heavy rains, with farmers diverting to other paying
crops that require more water.

The Natural Disaster Management Division of the home ministry is,
however, yet to publicise the estimated loss due to floods. A ministry
official said, "The flood loss may be more or less the same as in
previous years. Floods used to occur in Bihar, north-eastern India and
Himachal Pradesh, and this year, they occurred in Rajasthan, Gujarat
and Maharashtra."

In the past 3 months, the average cumulative rainfall has been 2%
below normal. India has received 69.9 cm rains out of the usual 71 cm.
The southwest monsoon is slated to begin withdrawing this month and
the country can, at best, expect another 18 cm of rain, say Met
experts.