Dear all:
I want to know how to predict downstream monthly discharge using the
upstream monthly discharge in an arid area
a)Muskingum method is used for this problem,but
1) the time scale in this study is month,flood peak usually appears in Aug
in upstream and in Oct in downsteam
2)and evaporation are much larger than rainfall and evaporation can not be
neglected which can be neglected in less time scale such as hour or day
b)regression mothod is also used ,but the R^2 no more than 0.70
for more clear description,i paste the data below,anyone would tell me how
to deal with this problem?any response is appreciated.the initial water
storage is about 500,000,000m^3.
thank you
regards
Daqing Liu
month upin(10^6m^3) downout(10^6m^3) rainfall(mm)
evaporation(mm)
Jan-700.09500.952.46
Feb-700.26502.656.45
Mar-701.284900.7523.13
Apr-7042.9049810.264323.688.64
May-7047.304769.2404836.395.18
Jun-7025.102562.332861.95109
Jul-7041.2528410.47254213.970.08
Aug-7048.1547352.4966467.485.6
Sep-7036.6987732.918428.2563.72
Oct-7020.7083325.766213.6540.49
Nov-707.61247522.239362.6510.77
Dec-700.1055.7853440.654.02
Jan-710.0400.44.62
Feb-710.2302.39.42
Mar-710.32503.2531.74
Apr-715.7846774.458247.993.81
May-7122.943417.74057656.270.57
Jun-7137.337243.369642.5582.67
Jul-7130.265226.56208124.297.38
Aug-7116.633456.45494468.2592.72
Sep-7127.641661.94446.7556.65
Oct-7122.692074.4193620.544.76
Nov-7110.3853612.337922.0513.67
Dec-710.2453.5890562.453.84
Jan-720.0100.14.32
Feb-720.19501.9510.29
Feb-721.103874010.938.44
Mar-724.3941826.5836821.4581.33
Apr-725.185894.74076810.65108.37
May-7212.733141.8921696.495.96
Jun-7262.975433.21408102.2580.28
Jul-72126.0415.70499246.7573.42
Aug-7273.973920.0102439.9549.9
Sep-7268.1691889.726429.4520.58
Oct-7250.1333363.24488.311.21
Nov-722.4504956.7495681.253.36
Jan-730.0100.12.88
Feb-730.2802.87.75
Feb-731.28454100.8526.35
Mar-7344.5034119.7769616.4563.57
Apr-7363.9407723.2485142.279.7
May-7358.0659132.659215.5100.32
Jun-7374.8652527.85536160.792.71
Jul-7389.6136165.35296105.1566.41
Aug-7355.3396368.42884.4575.34
Sep-7318.1841749.55047.2540.55
Oct-736.33634923.9241623.3511.34
Nov-730.1043691.0177920.853.12
Jan-740.1301.33.78
Feb-740.12501.256.45
Feb-740.35503.5520.15
Mar-745.73471314.2819210.0564.13
Apr-7441.5198512.5081370.9577.51
May-74125.14127.2835230.2583.96
Jun-7455.738637.419168120.4594.77
Jul-7442.8420719.3648380.1593.38
Aug-7442.6882723.3798466.0551.07
Sep-7437.3183131.0694411.7541.42
Oct-7410.2674716.511045.111.21
Nov-740.091.0177920.32.76
Jan-750.17501.754.38
Feb-750.1301.37.13
Feb-750.39774703.934.41
Mar-7516.5606210.2643210.192.67
Apr-7515.210589.2404833.4599.7
May-7530.5397115.0336125.7102.2
Jun-7557.9854725.4983763.8596.24
Jul-7546.4588740.7116833.7121.41
Aug-755.18976329.548816.8595.32
Sep-752.35855138.301129.554.06
Oct-753.2939628.77120.324.82
Nov-750.0388745.0086080.356.42
Jan-760.04500.456.48
Feb-760.1301.319.53
Feb-760.9709.747.68
Mar-761.34498.7091210.3595.13
Apr-7610.3535910.7939531.8136.9
May-7620.492143.9916871.1106.52
Jun-7612.8265210.9278760.75145.2
Jul-7616.0911113.3384373.6595.63
Aug-7631.4084619.180820.196.04
Sep-7624.6398621.641478.2567.27
Oct-763.80887412.597122.5512.03
Nov-760.20.9374423.96
Jan-770.11501.152.7
Feb-770.0500.56.88
Mar-771.417747014.140.55
Apr-771.76971311.6899210.397.02
May-7711.846358.81193633.45161.37
Jun-7729.510575.184118.05103.05
Jul-7763.473067.445952139.05117.9
Aug-7762.1911720.1147838.65128.66
Sep-7719.564931.622412.95125.11
Oct-775.14220232.9443243.6580.79
Nov-770.62832922.731844.1518.52
Dec-770.3751.5802563.753.42
Jan-780.21502.153.48
Feb-780.13501.358.56
Mar-780.34535902.6545.26
Apr-7834.061385.676488.55102.94
May-7813.056663.85689612137.41
Jun-7820.59611.5292891.3131.96
Jul-7823.991482.43734470.95114.8
Aug-7832.155445.83891218.05123.91
Sep-7826.5859911.6380866.4589.87
Oct-7811.54515.561512.9548.67
Nov-781.8613.42656320.85
Dec-780.2351.0445762.256.42
Jan-790.2502.56.06
Feb-790.4904.910.11
Mar-790.2701.736.89
Apr-795.3126472.851214.8588.26
May-798.1413492.3837762.2157.31
Jun-7932.721431.6329663.55144.36
Jul-7947.898211.7409669.75140.21
Aug-7916.88720.91065680.35130.15
Sep-7923.412730.20476829.4597.79
Oct-7915.469053.1337283.9577.81
Nov-792.66648510.186562.426.71
Dec-791.109.811.58
Jan-800.1801.88.34
Feb-800.01500.1518.04
Mar-800.19261100.467.46
Apr-8011.521353.2918412.596.26
May-8020.2252.78553611.45139.96
Jun-8021.350770.9590466.7135.88
Jul-8060.441467.3656121.15116.1
Aug-80177.704337.497669.3112.09
Sep-8065.00275100.310492.975.86
Oct-8017.88007109.54666.457.35
Nov-803.79157147.9522.1531.5
Dec-800.3266213.615841.8511.76
Jan-8100014.76
Feb-810.37503.7516.49
Mar-810.88986407.4543.34
Apr-8119.4771420.0102425.25118.38
May-8144.3381425.0698261.1599.47
Jun-8113.2738116.718471.75126.45
Jul-8130.2230870.9776164.25107.15
Aug-8159.81768132.8486163.0591.83
Sep-8139.01765117.93613.2593.77
Oct-8118.53731136.062740.1545.51
Nov-815.44652176.20480.1516.25
Dec-810.4104957.1245441.858.52
Jan-820.03500.358.04
Feb-820.2802.816.93
Mar-823.10324205.644.14
Apr-8244.2615630.844811.7588.07
May-82101.178927.3196861.5597.46
Jun-8239.1440517.23686.9145.7
Jul-8241.7069313.7401939.7129.35
Aug-8261.414948.99942451.3119.69
Sep-8248.8982139.139283.7578.71
Oct-8214.4285593.7441854
Nov-823.5509461.68966.8516.82
Dec-820.7038744.36579255.22
Jan-830.0900.93.96
Feb-830.02500.257.87
Mar-831.4167930.4821120.7540.61
Apr-8340.5670426.4384111.85108.86
May-8328.5564842.0508836.15103.21
Jun-8330.88716109.3824141.978.05
Jul-83146.6101171.9533208.9586.52
Aug-83208.2719174.631752.490.82
Sep-83113.5367117.676830.872.94
Oct-8326.56079105.5292.853.38
Nov-837.48341559.356814.117.77
Dec-830.6781068.70482.85.94
Jan-840.2302.33.48
Feb-840.2302.38.06
Mar-842.149591017.0526.66
Apr-8421.6043829.7561631.481.21
May-8415.1014632.0872340.0599.56
Jun-8423.6536921.254460.95104.54
Jul-84108.957550.19322145.8103.46
Aug-84202.628577.40576138.792.84
Sep-84114.1675146.681345.5580.2
Oct-8447.04316169.43569.9545.07
Nov-8411.6210391.49764.0519.09
Dec-840.76261114.811552.15.1
Jan-850.5805.83.48
Feb-850.59505.958.99
Mar-851.4011620.4339010.145.38
Apr-8532.5854532.451842.6102.69
May-8520.310614.993685.9139.14
Jun-8531.9324314.56704160.25110.78
Jul-8592.8746812.7491898.05101.02
Aug-85204.093158.36234157.8573.72
Sep-8541.26663118.013869.169.95
Oct-8519.8492143.29449.556.98
Nov-856.00227486.261762.0522.18
Dec-850.99860112.277797.454.14
Jan-860.1301.34.74
Feb-860.5605.610.73
Mar-862.2732860.5571074.432.98
Apr-8636.1149350.880961.0589.27
May-8622.3106228.8115526.35101.66
Jun-8651.373215.2150473.4109.49
Jul-8661.9150126.9447180.5579.79
Aug-86144.759269.6919767.988.45
Sep-86103.919466.7180849.777.35
Oct-8659.910794.815364.3544.45
Nov-8614.4307555.105922.0514.24
Dec-860.5936018.6244481.24.92
Jan-870.4950.0535684.956
Feb-870.1701.79.86
Mar-871.61959102.2528.64
Apr-87123.207126.461734.273.4
May-8786.1225819.2041318.9585.73
Jun-8786.5939210.2643283.4109.94
Jul-8794.7199917.2489121.199.55
Aug-87171.524353.83584210.277.75
Sep-8760.91646122.731257.277.8
Oct-8732.97487126.902634.0548.3
Nov-876.39682981.6220812.614.11
Dec-870.71549516.57934.14.74
Jan-880.0750.5624640.754.44
Feb-880.1801.88.25
Mar-884.8715420.0401764.1530.69
Apr-8845.7121251.6585622.4574.66
May-8835.5889550.4342777.9572.77
Jun-8833.7181391.3939238.75129.43
Jul-8882.2392107.136221.3580.66
Aug-8819.94978212.397157.6598.31
Sep-8814.47482132.606745.770.79
Oct-8810.82103114.126637.752.89
Nov-883.60611269.15456623.75
Dec-880.39986415.285633.455.88
Jan-890.13501.353.3
Feb-8900011.84
Mar-894.2336940.1848116.8535.34
Apr-897.82954840.30566.8582.22
May-8910.8618528.605311.1104.49
Jun-8958.1457817.18496102.4107.16
Jul-8943.7475212.4545680.196.78
Aug-8960.404757.07633344.6114.88
Sep-8940.287873.89059215.4584.03
Oct-8939.514547.90663725.9573.9
Nov-896.1844558.7894721.3523.81
Dec-891.3604950.6963849.056.66

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